Bank of Canada survey points to higher rates and yields through 2028
The median year-end 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast also rose, to 3.0% from 2.6%, while GDP growth is projected at 1.6% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027.
Canada’s labour market shed 4,700 jobs in October, pushing the national unemployment rate to 6.7% from 6.5%, a third consecutive month of deterioration that is now complicating the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) path to a December rate hike. https://t.co/dptjDonezZ
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) November 6, 2026
What brokers should tell renewal clients now
Marc Ercolao, economist at TD Economics in Toronto, previously said that the October hike was designed to buy time.
“We think this hike buys the Bank a few months to assess whether higher energy and input costs are actually filtering through to consumer prices,” he said, projecting one further 25-basis-point increase in Q1-2027.
CIBC economist Andrew Grantham projected a December hold but sees the terminal rate at 2.75% all the same.
“We don’t expect that core measures of inflation will accelerate as much as the Bank fears, which should become more obvious early in 2027 and allow the Bank of Canada to then hold interest rates at 2.75% throughout the remainder of next year,” he said.
