October Experiences First YoY Decline in U.S. Home-Sale Prices in Three Years

U.S. home-sale prices declined in October, bringing to an end a three-year run of monthly year-over-year gains that persisted even as mortgage rates rose and prospective buyers retreated. The figures come from a new report by Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.

The median home-sale price fell 0.4% year-over-year to $388,634 in October. This was the first decline since May 2023 and a sharp deceleration from the 2.5% increase recorded just two months earlier. Because Americans’ wages are rising about 4% year-over-year, even a modest price drop can improve affordability. Sale prices have increased in nearly every month over the past 13 years, with only a handful of exceptions in 2023. With the total supply of homes for sale at its highest level since early 2020 and demand cooling, buyers’ bargaining power continues to grow—and that shift is now reflected in sale prices.

Home-sale prices declined nationwide, although they increased in more than half of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas. San Francisco led by a wide margin, with its median sale price up 16.8% year over year—the largest increase since 2018. New Brunswick, NJ, followed with a 7.7% gain. Two other New York City-area metros also ranked among the top six: median sale prices rose 4.4% in both New York City and Nassau County.

In San Francisco, wealth generated by AI is intensifying competition for limited inventory; active listings were 7% lower than a year earlier. Around New York City, years of insufficient homebuilding have left buyers competing for a relatively small number of homes in a region with a strong job market.

October 2026 Metro-Level Highlights:

• Prices: Median sale prices fell most from a year earlier in Austin, TX (-6.5%), Seattle (-5.1%) and Nashville, TN (-4.9%). They rose most in San Francisco (16.8%), New Brunswick, NJ (7.7%) and Pittsburgh (6.5%). 
• Pending home sales: Pending sales fell in every major U.S. metro. The declines were biggest in Seattle (-28.7%), San Diego (-26.6%) and Denver (-24.2%). The smallest declines were in Newark, NJ (-4%), Pittsburgh (-5%) and West Palm Beach, FL (-5.8%).
• Closed home sales: Closed home sales fell in all but one metro. They fell most in Detroit (-17.9%), Seattle and Dallas (both -15.4%). The only increase was in Montgomery County, PA (3.9%). 
• New listings: New listings rose most in San Jose, CA (15.4%), Providence, RI (9.1%) and Montgomery County, PA (8.9%). They fell most in San Antonio (-17.6%), Dallas (-9%) and Portland, OR (-8.6%). 
• Active listings: Active listings rose most in San Jose, CA (22.5%), Seattle (22.3%) and Boston (20.3%). They fell the most in three Florida metros: Fort Lauderdale (-13.5%), West Palm Beach (-12.4%) and Jacksonville (-11.9%).
• Days on market: In Fort Lauderdale, FL, the typical home that went under contract did so in 90 days, which was 18 days faster than a year earlier, the biggest decline among the metros analyzed. Next came West Palm Beach, FL (-15 days) and Jacksonville, FL (-14 days). Days on market increased the most in Tampa, FL (+21 days), Orlando, FL (+9 days) and Indianapolis (+7 days).

Note: All figures in the report are seasonally adjusted, except median sale prices and mortgage rates.

Pandemic Shifts & Metro Highlights

Prices fell most in Austin, Texas, where the median declined 6.5% year-over-year. Seattle followed with a 5.1% drop, and Nashville, TN, with a 4.9% decline. Austin and Nashville are among the country’s strongest buyer’s markets, while Seattle’s tech job market remains shaky.

National home-price growth is slowing as fewer Americans can afford to purchase a home. U.S. pending home sales declined 3.6% month over month in October, on a seasonally adjusted basis, reaching their lowest level since 2013, apart from April 2020. As a real-time gauge of housing-market conditions, pending sales show that fewer homes went under contract in October, largely because mortgage rates averaged 7.33%—a three-year high, up from 6.86% the previous month.

“It’s a buyer’s market, but not many people can afford to buy,” said Chen Zhao, Head of Economics at Redfin. “That could start to shift a bit, now that sale prices are closer to reflecting the shape of the market. House hunters in most of the country should know that the price they see on a listing may very well be a starting point; they should try offering below the asking price, and negotiating for closing costs, repairs and maybe even mortgage-rate buydowns. If you can’t get the price or monthly payment you want on one house, move on to the next one—with a big pool of inventory sitting on the market, buyers can afford to be picky.”

Pending home sales fell across all of the most populous U.S. metro areas. This marked the second consecutive month of declines; before September, the last time this happened was three years ago. The steepest drops occurred in Seattle and San Diego, where pending sales declined by more than 20% year over year. These West Coast metros rank among the most expensive in the country, making mortgages above 7% especially painful for buyers’ monthly budgets. In Seattle, uncertainty in the local job market is also dampening demand.

Closed home sales sank to their lowest point in almost three years. They fell 2.1% month-over-month in October, reaching a level not seen since December 2023. Before that, sales had last fallen this low in 2014. Many homes that closed last month went under contract in August or September, when mortgage rates were already rising and economic uncertainty was discouraging many prospective buyers. As demand for home purchases weakens, inventory is accumulating. The number of homes for sale increased 0.9% from September, reaching its highest level since early 2020. It was the largest monthly increase since May 2025.

More supply gives buyers more homes to choose from and more leverage:

• Three in five homes are selling under asking price. 61% of homes that sold in October went for less than their original list price.
• More sellers are cutting their prices. 36% of homes that sold in October had at least one price drop—the highest share in Redfin’s records. 
• Roughly 15% of pending sales fell out of contract. That’s the highest share on record other than the pandemic spike in March and April 2020. Buyers with more choices can walk away over inspection issues or a monthly payment that is higher than expected.

“Buyers are nervous about rates, the economy, and everything they’re seeing in the news—so they need the house and the price to line up perfectly before they’ll make an offer,” said Callie Kimmel, a Redfin Premier agent in Philadelphia. “I’m advising sellers to price just below current market value from day one—and not comps from six months ago, but homes that are listed right now. Otherwise, the home is likely to end up sitting on the market for a bit and selling for less than they hoped. There are a few exceptions: Move-in ready homes in the most desirable neighborhoods are still competitive; in those cases, sellers have the upper hand.”

Although the overall housing supply is increasing, fewer sellers are bringing new homes to market. New listings declined 1% from the previous month, reaching their lowest level in more than two years. Prospective sellers are holding back as buyer demand cools and home prices lose momentum.

To read the full report, click here.