Consistent house price growth is a thing of the past, says Zoopla
Only 14% of UK homes have risen in value every year over the past five years, according to Zoopla, underlining how higher borrowing costs have reshaped the housing market.
Zoopla’s house price index showed the average UK property has increased by 15.3% in value over the period, equivalent to £36,100 per home.
The analysis covered a five-year period in which borrowing costs shifted sharply, from ultra-low mortgage rates at the end of 2021 to rates of around 4-5% today.
With mortgage rates now 2-3 times higher than they were five years ago, house price inflation is no longer guaranteed.
Zoopla said the impact has been uneven, with higher borrowing costs weighing most heavily on buyers in higher-priced housing markets.
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Regional divide in house price growth
Northern Ireland had the highest proportion of homes that increased in value every year, at 37.9% or 300,400 homes. That was more than double the UK average.
The North West ranked second, with 29.7% of homes, or 1,006,800 properties, rising consistently – the largest number of any UK region.
Southern regions lag behind
The East of England had the lowest share of homes rising in value every year, at 2.6% or 72,600 homes. The South East followed with 3.2% or 129,400 homes.
The South West stood at 4.1% or 107,300 homes, while London recorded 4.6% or 178,000 homes. The East Midlands was also below average, at 9.8% or 212,400 homes.
Northern Ireland showed the strongest overall performance, with the highest share of homes rising consistently and no homes falling in value every year.
London was the weakest among higher-value markets, with a below-average share of homes rising consistently and the highest share of homes falling every year, at 0.8%.
The gap between the strongest and weakest regions was wide – Northern Ireland’s 37.9% share of homes rising every year compared with 2.6% in the East of England, a difference of 35.3 percentage points. The gap in homes falling every year was much narrower, ranging from 0.8% in London to 0% in Northern Ireland.
Transport infrastructure affects house prices
Localised hotspots in each region tell a clearer story than regional averages, with specific factors supporting consistent price growth.
Dagenham was positioned as London’s last affordable family home market, with values around 25% below the London average. Transport improvements including the Elizabeth Line and the Overground extension to Barking Riverside reinforced this performance.
Bicester had 28% of homes with consistent gains, bolstered by East West Rail’s Oxford-Cambridge link, which opened its Bicester-Bletchley section in December 2024, alongside rising new housing supply.
Bonnybridge led the UK at 60.8%, helped by 15-40-minute commutes to Falkirk, Stirling and Glasgow.
Witham, by contrast, managed just 13.3% despite a 45-minute Liverpool Street commute, as values already sit around £320,000 – underlining that affordability, not transport alone, sustains consistent growth.
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, commented: “The last five years have seen local housing markets adjust differently to the impact of moving from record-low borrowing costs to higher rates today. Housing markets across Northern Ireland, the North and Scotland have seen homeowners keep building equity in their home because the local housing market was less exposed to the affordability pressures that higher mortgage rates bring.
“For homeowners, this analysis highlights why you cannot rely on national or regional averages when assessing what your home is worth. Trends vary by property type and at a hyper-local level. Understanding whether your local area has consistently built equity or flatlined is essential information, if you want to understand what you can afford to buy next or you are actively planning your next move.”
