Crypto bet big again on the midterms. Will it pay off this time?
- Key insight: The Ohio Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown and incumbent Republican Jon Husted is emerging as a high-profile test of crypto’s political clout.
- Forward look: A Democratic-led Congress could bring greater scrutiny of crypto and prediction markets, giving traditional banks an incentive to keep a lower profile.
WASHINGTON — Cryptocurrency companies are spending heavily to elect allies and defeat critics in this year’s midterms, testing whether they can replicate their 2024 political success while positioning themselves for Washington’s power shift.
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Crypto corporations have contributed $233 million to super PACs and hybrid PACs during the 2026 election cycle, according to Public Citizen’s analysis of federal campaign finance disclosures through Oct. 23. The spending is a bet that the industry can maintain its influence in Washington even as control of Congress — and the priorities of its leaders — change.
The growing political influence of crypto is of huge concern to banks, who have at times clashed with the nascent industry, most recently in the debate on
Ohio’s Senate race will be one of the most important bellwethers for whether crypto’s strategy is effective this go-around.
During the 2024 presidential election, money from crypto PAC Fairshake helped unseat former Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, although the Republican wave ushered in by President Donald Trump was also a heavy factor. Brown is, this year, running against Jon Husted, who the crypto industry has tapped as an ally. The outcome — and the race is tight, according to polling — will likely become a defining test of the industry’s political influence.
“Crypto’s money might not be as important as it was in 2024, but if Husted wins, crypto will declare victory no matter what else happens,” said Ian Katz, a managing director at Capital Alpha Partners. “That’s the highest-profile race involving crypto, so even though crypto has contributed to a lot of races, Brown-Husted will be perceived to be almost binary for the crypto industry.”
The election matters beyond crypto as well. Katz said he’s also watching Sen. Roger Marshall’s reelection campaign in Kansas. Marshall has worked with Sen. Dick Durbin, the retiring Democrat from Illinois, on the Credit Card Competition Act, one of the leading pieces of swipe fee legislation.
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Durbin is leaving the Senate this year, and a loss from Marshall would leave neither of the bill’s Senate champions in Congress.
“I think the Marshall race is unhelpful to the Credit Card Competition Act’s chances if he loses,” Katz said. “If the Durbin-Marshall has neither Durbin nor Marshall in Congress, that’s not great for the bill’s chances. Even if Marshall barely wins, he might not be in a great position to get more support for the bill. With Durbin leaving the Senate, it will matter who’s driving that in Congress.”
The more consequential question for the crypto industry may be what happens if Democrats take control of one or both chambers. A Democratic majority could bring more scrutiny of digital assets and prediction markets, while changing the prospects for legislation that the industry has been pushing.
Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst, said a Democratic Senate could put Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in position to chair the Senate Banking Committee. He also raised the possibility of Brown taking a leadership role on the panel if he wins reelection.
“The biggest issue on the Hill will be if there is a Democratic majority in the Senate. Elizabeth Warren as chair of the Banking Committee. If Sherrod Brown, where does he fit into the leadership of the Banking Committee?” Mills said.
A Democratic majority would not necessarily mean a uniformly hostile committee, Mills said. He said that the party’s Senate candidates include moderates who might temper the sharpest edges of a Warren- or Brown-led committee.
“It is much more likely to be Sherrod Brown and Roy Cooper,” Mills said, referring to the most likely new Democratic members of the committee. “North Carolina is historically well represented on the Senate Banking Committee. So if those are the additions to the committee, I think the banking industry would be okay with that.”
In the House, Mills said Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., would likely lead the Financial Services Committee if Democrats win control. While Waters skews liberal, he said, she has shown an ability to negotiate with the industry.
The possibility of a Democratic-led House and Republican-led Senate could even create openings for some financial services legislation, Mills said, but he said whatever legislation does emerge from this Congress will likely be smaller-bore items.
“I don’t see banking issues being the top tier issue over the next couple of years,” he said. “We’ve done the Jobs Act, Jobs Act 2.0. Like, if you can do some singles and doubles, you can get it. But there are no home run banking bills on the horizon.”
Katz is also skeptical that a divided Congress will produce significant financial services legislation.
“I’m pretty skeptical about Dems legislating alongside Republicans in the next two years,” he said. “I can’t think of anything in financial services that I would say is likely to pass. Stuff will get talked about, like housing and maybe retirement savings. But I don’t see any of it becoming law.”
For crypto companies, the political investment could extend beyond the immediate legislative agenda. Mills said the industry’s spending may also be intended to prepare for a potential Democratic sweep in 2028, when the regulatory and oversight landscape could look very different.
He also said the industry’s growing political influence has changed the balance of power in Washington. That could matter as lawmakers turn their attention to oversight of digital assets and prediction markets, including consumer protections, insider trading and ethics restrictions for government officials.
He said that banks may prefer to avoid becoming a central target of a Democratic-led Congress.
“I’m not expecting Senator Warren and the banks to hug it out,” Mills said. “But I certainly would expect the banks [to] kind of lay low.”
For the crypto industry, the spending is also a way to establish itself as a permanent force in Washington rather than a sector that only becomes politically relevant during major legislative fights.
“The monopoly’s gone,” Mills said.
