Equity shortages threaten Canadian CRE refinancing in 2027
“The GTA’s real estate market is moving at different speeds. Industrial and premium office show signs of recovery, while condominiums remain challenged. Purpose-built rental is supporting construction despite difficult project economics. Long-term investment opportunities remain, but realizing them requires patient capital and sustained housing delivery to prevent today’s slowdown from creating future supply gaps and renewed pressure on housing affordability,” said Richard Joy, executive director at Urban Land Institute, Toronto.
Elsewhere, Calgary and Edmonton are attracting investor interest, supported by stronger economic growth forecasts. Calgary ranks first among Canadian markets to watch for 2027, with real GDP growth projected at 3.4%, according to Signal49. Edmonton is expected to grow by 3.0%, with continued interest in smaller industrial properties.
Across Canada, the report identifies senior housing, retail and industrial properties as the leading investment opportunities for 2027, although each comes with different risks.
Demand for senior housing is growing with Canada’s ageing population. Cushman & Wakefield estimates that nearly 200,000 additional rental units will be needed over the next decade, although staffing and operating requirements add complexity.
Retail properties are benefiting from limited new supply and renewed tenant demand. Industrial investors, meanwhile, favour small- and mid-bay facilities, while larger properties face greater risk when they depend on a single major tenant.
