New Week. Same Old Story
New Week. Same Old Story
Mon, Jul 20 2026, 3:53 PM
While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entertain various potential sources of motivation, it’s just as good to take a few giant steps back and observe the bigger picture trend. When we do, we see a decisively weaker trend since October 2025 with additional volatility and selling pressure after the start of the Iran war. Unsurprisingly resurgence of hostilities has put upward pressure on both fuel prices and bond yields. This is definitely one of those “under the microscope” market movers at the start of the week. There were also some tradeflow considerations regardless of news headlines. This was seen in the form of both stocks and bonds noticeably shifting just after 9:30am. Until that point, stocks were improving and bonds were doing a decent job holding sideways. Afterward, both lost ground.
09:17 AM
modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.567
11:41 AM
MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.593
02:49 PM
MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.597
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