Inflation return to 2% thrown into doubt, Bank of Canada survey shows
Canada’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August, according to Statistics Canada data released Monday — and economists say the reading gives the BoC little reason to lift its overnight rate at the October 28 meeting. https://t.co/JN1kELMQ9B
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 19, 2026
Rate decision in focus as brokers seek clarity
For brokers advising clients ahead of the BoC’s October 28 decision, the picture is uncommonly unsettled. The annual consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.1% in September, above the prior month’s reading.
Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres Group (DLCG) in Canada, said the September reading keeps a hold in play.
“The September data support our base-case scenario that the Bank of Canada will remain on hold at its October 28 meeting,” she said.
“Policymakers will continue to closely monitor incoming inflation data and stand ready to tighten policy if price pressures broaden and become more persistent.”
Fan framed the broader dilemma in terms mortgage brokers will recognize. “We continue to see fragile economic recovery as the biggest counterweight to heightened inflation risks, and expect caution from the BoC, especially when rising bond yields are already tightening financial conditions and raising borrowing costs for businesses and households,” she wrote.
