CFIB sees Canadian GDP growth slowing in Q4
The labour market is softening too. Statistics Canada reported the economy lost about 68,000 jobs in September after 42,000 in August, pushing unemployment to 6.5%, The Hub reported. Employment remains 95,000 above September 2025, and average hourly wages rose 2.3%. Inflation was 3.0% in August, with gasoline prices up 22.8% from a year earlier and prices excluding gasoline up 2.4%.
The Bank of Canada has held its key rate at 2.25% for about a year, with its next decision set for Oct. 28, The Canadian Press reported. Markets had been adding odds of a hike. After the August inflation report, Leslie Preston, managing director and senior economist at TD, said that “prior to today’s inflation reading, the 2-Year Government of Canada bond yield had risen over 40 basis points over the past month as markets moved to price in interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada this year. We don’t think today’s inflation report supports this degree of tightening.” For advisors, the rate path bears on client borrowing costs and fixed-income positioning.
Gaudreault said the picture varies by firm. “This reflects an economy where businesses are faced with different realities and challenges, with some being impacted more by recent macroeconomic events and others still displaying resilience,” he said. “Aggregate data is currently masking a tale of mixed business fates, and there is still significant uncertainty about when the Canadian economy will be able to really rebound, following the latest episodes of this trade war.”
Statistics Canada is scheduled to release September inflation data Oct. 19.
