Crushed tech stocks bounce; new doctor survey keeps us positive on Lilly
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Stocks are higher on Monday as investors assess last week’s tech carnage and buy the pullbacks in chip stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is on pace to snap a nine-session losing streak — set to end its worst stretch since May 2006. The Nasdaq is up 1%. However, we would characterize the bounce as tepid. The SOXX is trading well off its best levels of the session, and market focal point CoreWeave has flipped from positive to negative on the day. The stock is making a new low for the year under $60 per share. Still, as money rotated into semiconductor stocks , it moved out of defensive groups that rallied last week, including healthcare and consumer staples. That’s why the Dow is near flat. Oil is on the move, with WTI crude increasing about $2 to around $103 per barrel. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and leading to a selloff in bonds, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury up on the day. The uptick comes after a week in which yields significantly pulled back as part of a flight to safety in the market. Remember, when bond prices go up from investor buying yield go down. The opposite is also true as bond prices and yields move inversely to one and othter. The market for obesity drugs is getting bigger thanks to the introduction of daily pills and Medicare coverage this year, keeping the wind at Eli Lilly’s back. That’s the conclusion of Bank of America analysts following their third-quarter physician survey. In a note to clients Monday, they raised their price target on Lilly shares to $1,397 apiece from $1,341. While the stock is slightly lower Monday, it has had a nice move this month and sits about 2% below its record close set on Aug. 19. To be sure, the notion that pills and Medicare’s temporary Bridge access program are meaningfully growing the GLP-1 market isn’t new — Lilly CEO David Ricks made this case in a September CNBC interview. But given the potential for there to be some cannibalization of existing patients, it’s encouraging to get additional evidence supporting the mostly expansionary view. Lilly’s oral Foundayo launched in the U.S. in April, about three months after main rival Novo Nordisk introduced its Wegovy pill. Medicare coverage began July 1. “Our 3Q physician obesity survey adds validation for oral GLP-1s and the Medicare Bridge as US category expanders, with both deriving ~70% of volumes from patients new to GLP-1s (naïve or restarts),” BofA analysts wrote. Also encouraging is that respondents to BofA’s survey expect Foundayo to “keep gaining share over the next 12 months” relative to the Wegovy pill. In the U.S., analysts wrote that “Foundayo is now at 27% of oral GLP-1 new starts, and our survey indicates 40% share by 2028/29.” Novo’s Wegovy pill is proving to be a more formidable competitor than perhaps we expected given its food-and-water restrictions. But, at this point, what we want to see is Lilly’s continued progress in closing the gap. Lilly reports Q3 earnings Oct. 29. Up next on the earnings calendar : Steel Dynamics, Crown Holdings, and a couple of regional banks in Western Alliance and Zions report after the bell. It’s a big industrial earnings day on Tuesday morning with GE Aerospace, RTX, 3M, and General Motors scheduled to report. On the data side Tuesday morning, it’s data on housing starts and building permits, and pending home sales. On Tuesday evening, Club name Capital One reports earnings, followed the next night by fellow portfolio holding Meta Platforms . (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
