Investment banking revenue nears $1.1 trillion as nonbanks surge
BCG managing director Julian Hein, a co-author of the report, said the institutions best positioned to grow are those that have centralized client coverage rather than organizing around product silos.
“Sponsors and hedge funds are raising the bar,” Hein said. “They expect financing through the cycle, proprietary insight, and technology-enabled coverage, and they can tell a bank that has redesigned its workflows from one that has simply added new tools. Banks that meet that standard, with one accountable relationship owner rather than a handful of product teams, are best placed to share in the growth.”
AI frees capacity, but doesn’t eliminate jobs
The report addresses head-on what AI will actually mean for bank workforces – a question with downstream relevance for advisors whose institutional counterparties are undergoing operational transformation.
BCG estimates that up to 40% of current full-time-equivalent capacity in middle- and back-office functions could be freed up by 2030, measured against today’s job profiles. Freed capacity is not the same as a net head count reduction: much of it may be absorbed by new roles as banks redeploy staff toward higher-value, judgment-intensive work.
The financial stakes of getting that transformation right are significant. By 2030, leading CIBs are on track to sustain a cost-to-income ratio of roughly 53% and a return on tangible equity of approximately 21%, compared with roughly 68% and 10% for laggards, the report projects. That performance gap has direct consequences for the stability and quality of institutional banking partnerships that advisory firms rely on.
