CREA cuts its 2026 home sales forecast yet again
“There’s a lot of global tensions right now that are affecting our market. What’s affecting bond yields? What affects fixed rates? Agents and brokers should know that. We as mortgage agents and brokers should never predict, but one thing we should do is make sure that we understand the knowledge so we can future-prepare homeowners for what could be coming down the pipeline,” Valko said at the event.
Ontario and BC weigh on 2026 home prices
CREA expects Ontario’s average price to fall 3% to $809,334 and British Columbia’s to slip 0.8% to $944,685 this year, while Newfoundland and Labrador (5.7%) and Saskatchewan (5%) lead gains.
For 2027, it forecasts a 4.4% rebound to 464,235 sales and a 1.2% price gain to $689,909, assuming limited action from the central bank. Even that recovery would leave sales about 4,400 below 2025 levels.
Andy Kuyper, head of partnerships and secured lending at TransUnion, was cautious on timing.
“I’d like to be optimistic. I think we’re facing the reality that with the geopolitical climate and everything that’s happening here, our mortgage industry is probably not ready to rebound. We are seeing slight growth in originations, we’re seeing slight growth in mortgage balances – a lot more on the refi side,” he said at MortgageFest.
