CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year
By Sammy Hudes
CREA now expects a total of 444,530 homes to be sold by the end of this year, representing a 5.2% decrease from 2025 — down from its July forecast of a 1.4% year-over-year decline.
The association projects the national average home price to tick 0.2% higher on an annual basis to $681,681 this year, which is around $5,000 lower than predicted in the summer.
In September, the national average sale price fell 1.6% compared with the same month a year earlier to $666,538.
CREA’s own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, edged 0.4% lower from August to September, while the index dropped 3.4% on a year-over-year basis.
The association says national home sales were down 7.7% in September compared with the same month last year, while activity also fell 2.3% from August.
“After a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, many of Canada’s housing markets took a step back in September,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart in a news release.
“This was hardly surprising given the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates, and with the Bank of Canada now widely expected to follow with a rate hike before the end of the year. With housing affordability already stretched, the big question going forward is how much farther will the bank have to go to keep a lid on inflation next year? Until that becomes clearer, this fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines.”
Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today
Canadian real estate association crea Dashboard economic indicators existing home sales home price data home prices real estate market shaun cathcart The Canadian Press
Last modified: October 16, 2026
