Canadian housing market treads water as trade uncertainty sidelines buyers
“Autumn, the second-busiest season of the year, typically injects energy into the market,” Soper said. “This year, economic uncertainty and concern that mortgage rates could move materially higher are keeping would-be buyers on the sidelines.”
The U.S.-Canada trade dispute is a significant factor. Negotiations broke down on August 21, 2026, with no further talks scheduled, according to Royal LePage. The following day, the United States announced a 50 per cent tariff on billions of dollars in Canadian goods, including wine, furniture, dairy, cement and clothing – layered on top of existing levies on automotive, steel, aluminum and lumber exports.
Ottawa retaliated with counter-tariffs, and the U.S. responded with an import ban on certain Canadian products. While the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) remains in force until 2036, it has entered an annual review period marked by heightened uncertainty.
“Canadians’ confidence in buying and selling real estate is obviously tightly linked to the perceived stability of the country’s relationship with our closest trading partner,” Soper said.
Regional divides deepen
The national figure masks significant regional disparities. The Greater Toronto Area recorded an aggregate home price decline of 3.7 per cent year over year to $1,073,100, while Greater Vancouver dropped 4.0 per cent to $1,148,100 – with Vancouver transaction volumes running approximately 25 to 30 per cent below their 10-year average, according to Randy Ryalls, managing broker at Royal LePage Sterling Realty in Vancouver. In contrast, the Greater Montreal Area posted a 2.9 per cent gain to $653,700, while Prairie markets proved comparatively resilient.
