Here’s how much Trump’s Iran war is boosting EV sales around the world

The Trump administration has done everything it can to slow the growth of EVs. But in an ironic twist, Trump’s war in Iran is boosting the EV industry globally.

After the U.S. attacked Iran in late February and the price of crude oil soared, global EV sales also surged. A new report from Ember, an energy think tank that is tracking EV sales in 56 countries, found that 49 of them have hit new records for EVs this year.

Chart titled “EV adoption is booming around the world” showing rolling six-month battery electric vehicle sales share from January 2023 through August 2026 across dozens of countries. Each country is represented by a small line chart, with countries ordered by their highest recorded EV market share. Most charts show an upward trend over the period, indicating growing EV adoption. Norway has the highest share, rising to nearly 100 percent of new vehicle sales, followed by Denmark at about 80 percent and Iceland at roughly 50 percent. Singapore, Viet Nam, Finland, the Netherlands, China, Sweden, Uruguay, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, France, Ireland, Thailand, Portugal, Germany, Austria, the United Kingdom, and South Korea all show substantial growth, with EV market shares generally reaching between 20 and 60 percent by 2026. Additional countries including Switzerland, Indonesia, Slovenia, Australia, Türkiye, Colombia, Albania, New Zealand, Cyprus, Taiwan, Spain, Latvia, Hungary, Lithuania, Greece, Italy, Malaysia, Bulgaria, Ecuador, Estonia, Czechia, Brazil, India, Slovakia, Croatia, Japan, Chile, and Mexico also show rising EV adoption, although from lower starting points and to lower overall market shares. The chart’s overall message is that battery electric vehicle adoption increased across a wide range of global markets between 2023 and 2026, with especially high penetration in several Nordic countries and strong recent growth in many emerging and developed economies. Source: Ember monthly EV sales data. — [Image: Ember]

Between March and August, EV sales in New Zealand grew 165% compared with the previous six months. In Chile, they were up 124%, and in India, 58%.

Bar chart titled “Several markets saw rapid acceleration in EV adoption following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026.” The chart compares changes in battery electric vehicle sales during the six months before and after the March 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure. Light blue bars represent the pre-crisis period from September 2025 to February 2026, while dark blue bars represent the post-crisis period from March 2026 to August 2026. New Zealand increased from 11 percent growth before the crisis to 165 percent after it, Australia increased from 5 percent to 136 percent, Chile increased from 7 percent to 124 percent, and India increased from 17 percent to 58 percent. In all four countries, EV sales growth accelerated substantially after the closure, with the largest post-crisis increases occurring in New Zealand, Australia, and Chile. The source is Ember using monthly EV sales data. — [Image: Ember]

In many countries, the growth was also supported by new policies. In Germany, for example, pro-EV policies that rolled out last year were in place as fuel prices rose. By August, as Germany’s gas prices reached a record high of around $8.52 per gallon, the country’s battery electric vehicle sales made up 27.5% of total car sales—a 50% increase over the same month last year.

“First you had fuel efficiency standards—which basically means a lot of manufacturers suddenly started bringing out more affordable electric car models at the start of this year—and then there was also some more direct policy support in Germany,” says Euan Graham, senior energy analyst at Ember. “So, all of that has meant that as consumer interest in EVs has risen and as petrol prices have risen, consumers have also had more affordable electric car models to choose from.”

In Uruguay, which has supported EV growth for more than a decade, the share of EV sales reached a record high of 38% in August. Vietnam hit 51%. Australia reached a 20% share. Norway, a longtime leader in EVs, hit 98%. Countries that have been slower to adopt the cars are also catching up. India had a 2% EV share in 2024, but that grew to 7% this August.

Overall, total global EV sales are up 11% year over year for the first eight months of 2026. Excluding data from the U.S. and China (Chinese car sales have dropped overall), global EV sales have grown 45% this year.

Chart titled “More and more countries are pulling ahead of the US on electric car adoption” showing the year in which individual countries surpassed the United States in battery electric vehicle share of new car sales. Countries are grouped by year along a timeline from 2012 through 2026. Iceland and Norway had already surpassed the United States before 2010. Switzerland and Austria overtook the United States in 2013 and 2014, while Sweden and China did so in 2015 and Portugal in 2017. A larger wave followed around 2019, including Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the United Kingdom. Additional countries overtook the United States in the early 2020s, including Israel, Nepal, Singapore, Australia, Thailand, Ukraine, Vietnam, Cyprus, Greece, Türkiye, Colombia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Ecuador, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Brazil, Romania, New Zealand, Latvia, Lithuania, Italy, India, and others. The largest cluster appears in 2026, indicating that many countries recently surpassed the United States in electric vehicle adoption. The chart’s overall message is that the United States has been overtaken by an increasing number of countries in battery electric vehicle market share over time, particularly in the mid-2020s. Source: Ember, using monthly EV sales data and International Energy Agency EV data. — [Image: Ember]

The U.S. is being left behind

There’s a notable outlier: New EV sales have fallen in the U.S. Over the first nine months of 2026, EV sales were down 30% compared with the same period last year.

Several policy changes contributed to the decline. The Trump administration killed off the $7,500 tax credit for EVs. It also froze funding for EV charging infrastructure (a judge ruled that the freeze was illegal, though states have been slow to use the money). Tariffs made it more expensive to make EV batteries. The administration rolled back fuel efficiency standards. In response, automakers have canceled multiple EV models in the U.S., from the Ford F-150 Lightning to the Nissan Ariya. As gas prices rose this year, consumers had fewer options.

EV sales in the U.S. rebounded slightly in the third quarter, and used EV sales are also growing. New lower-cost models like Slate’s minimalist electric truck and Ford’s upcoming $28,000 EV will likely help. Still, the U.S. is lagging behind the rest of the world.

Line charts titled “Other countries with large auto sectors are surpassing the US for EV uptake” comparing monthly battery electric vehicle sales share in Brazil, India, and Japan against the United States from 2023 through 2026. In each chart, a dashed gray line represents the United States and a blue line represents the country being highlighted. A vertical marker notes the end of the U.S. EV tax credit in September 2025. The U.S. line fluctuates around 6 to 10 percent EV share before dropping and then recovering to roughly 6 percent by 2026. Brazil’s EV share rises from near zero in 2023 to almost 10 percent by 2026, overtaking the United States. India’s EV share increases steadily from about 2 percent to more than 8 percent by 2026, also surpassing the United States. Japan’s EV share starts near 1 to 2 percent, then accelerates during 2026 to around 5 percent, approaching U.S. levels. The chart highlights rapid EV adoption growth in several large automotive markets, with Brazil and India moving ahead of the United States by 2026. Source: Ember monthly EV sales data. — [Image: Ember]

Ember tracks EV sales in every country where data is available. In 49 out of 56 countries, the market share of EVs has now outpaced the U.S. Fifteen countries, including India and Brazil, overtook the U.S. this year.
China’s huge EV industry, which is now a major exporter, is benefiting. Domestic EV industries are growing in some other countries, including Vietnam and India. American auto manufacturers, meanwhile, have been forced to write down billions in losses because of their EV investments. Eventually, as the rest of the world keeps moving in a different direction, they may become obsolete. “I think the biggest impact is on the long-term competitiveness of U.S. auto manufacturers,” Graham says.

The Ember report details how much countries with strong EV adoption have benefited during the Iran war. China, for example, has been able to displace $14 billion in crude oil imports because of its fleet of electric cars. (That’s not counting the additional benefit from the use of electric trucks, buses, and other vehicles.) Globally, the report estimates that oil-importing countries have been able to displace 200 million barrels of crude oil since the war started, worth around $20 billion.

It’s not clear what will happen when the war ends and fuel prices stabilize. Graham expects the market share of EVs to continue to grow, but says that policy is still critical. “I think that the long-term impact of this supply crisis is really going to be defined by whether governments change how they plan for the future,” he says.