Here’s What $5,000 Invested in IonQ Stock Could Be Worth by 2030 (Hint: There Could Be Huge Upside)
Quantum computing has the potential to be the next big breakthrough technology after artificial intelligence (AI), and right now, IonQ (IONQ -4.50%) looks like the best pure play in the space. The reason is accuracy. With $5,000, you could purchase 116 shares of IonQ stock.
One of the biggest current obstacles with quantum computing is that it is error-prone, and with quantum computers doing billions of calculations in seconds, even the tiniest error rate adds up quickly. However, IonQ’s trapped-ion approach, with the addition of embedding microwave antennas directly into its chips, has proven to be the most accurate technology thus far. The company has achieved a 99.99% 2-qubit fidelity, giving it a lead in this area.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
More recently, the company announced it has demonstrated the sector’s first end-to-end real-time quantum error-correction decoder. Importantly, the company said it achieved this using an off-the-shelf central processing unit (CPU). This is a big breakthrough for the company in its goal of creating and scaling a fault-tolerant quantum computer.
Notably, IonQ wants to take a page out of Nvidia‘s playbook and not just create a fault-tolerant quantum system, but control the entire ecosystem. It has made important acquisitions in quantum networking, transmission, and sensing. Earlier this year, it acquired its own quantum foundry by buying SkyWater. This vertical integration should help speed up innovation and eventually allow it to scale more quickly.
The one downside to IonQ’s approach is that the trapped-ion technique it is using is slower than other quantum technologies. If these faster technologies improve their accuracy, the trapped-ion technique could eventually be surpassed.
What a $5,000 investment in IonQ could be worth in 2030
Given that quantum computing is an emerging technology, there is a wide range of possible outcomes for where IonQ could trade in 2030. Much will depend on how far along the company is in commercializing its quantum technology by that point.
For its part, in January 2025, the company forecasted that its sales would be around $1 billion in 2030 and that it would be profitable. Notably, the company has made some important acquisitions since then, including SkyWater. The analyst consensus for 2030, meanwhile, is for revenue of $1.95 billion, with a range of $1.63 billion to $2.16 billion. There is also a single-analyst estimate for 2031 of $6.36 billion.
If IonQ’s revenue is growing at that type of pace, I’d expect the company to command a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of at least 20 times. Based on the 2031 single-analyst consensus, that would give the company a market cap of around $48.5 billion, or $127 a share, assuming no share dilution.
Today’s Change
(-4.50%) $-1.95
Current Price
$41.34
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$40.76 – $42.38
52wk Range
$25.89 – $84.64
Volume
728.8K
Avg Vol
21M
Gross Margin
-3317.96%
It looks like IonQ currently has a few years of runway without needing to issue any more equity, but I would expect another $1 billion raise to keep its balance sheet strong. With dilution (assuming around 20 million shares), that could take that 2030 target down to around $120. That would be about a 280% return on the stock.
With a $5,000 investment, your 116 shares would be worth nearly $14,000 in 2030 if IonQ meets that price target. Of course, the company hitting $2 billion in revenue in 2030 and $6 billion in 2031 will require a major technological breakthrough on IonQ’s part. That may not happen, as it’s only projected to generate $455 million in revenue this year. As such, while the upside is huge, the stock remains highly speculative.
If IonQ looks close to a quantum computing breakthrough, I also wouldn’t be surprised if it gets acquired before then. Companies like Nvidia and Alphabet would likely love to get their hands on this technology when it gets closer to commercialization.
