Inside 11-quarter high earnings pomp, 46 companies may wipe out up to 84% of their Q2 profits
For the Nifty, earnings are expected to grow 27% YoY, the highest in 17 quarters, led by banks, NBFCs, metals, oil and gas, and telecom.
But beneath that headline strength, several pockets are still likely to see sharp profit pressure. The companies expected to report double-digit profit declines are spread across autos, cement, healthcare, consumer, capital goods, retail, utilities and chemicals.
The weak profit names are likely to be under pressure because the market backdrop is already fragile. Indian equities have been hit by foreign selling and elevated crude prices amid geopolitical uncertainty. A spike in global yields has also made developed-market fixed income more attractive, keeping pressure on emerging-market flows. Against this backdrop, analysts say investors are likely to punish companies where earnings disappoint, even if the aggregate profit picture looks strong.
Autos see margin pain despite sales growth
The auto sector has several names in the double-digit profit-decline list, even though sales growth remains healthy for many companies. Maruti Suzuki is expected to report an 19% YoY fall in net profit, despite revenue rising 27.7%. Hyundai Motor is seen reporting a 22% profit drop, while MRF may see a 24% decline.
The sharpest fall in the auto pack is expected from CEAT, where profit is projected to drop 69% YoY. Amara Raja Energy and Apollo Tyres are also expected to report profit declines of 21% and 19%, respectively. The numbers point to pressure from costs, product mix and operating leverage, even where demand has held up.
Cement remains a major weak spot
Cement is one of the clearest pressure points in the Q2 estimates. Several large and mid-sized cement companies are expected to report steep profit falls. ACC‘s net profit is projected to fall 74% YoY, while Ambuja Cements is expected to see a 73% decline. Birla Corporation and Dalmia Bharat are expected to report profit drops of 72% and 81%, respectively. JK Lakshmi Cement may see profit fall 66%, while Shree Cement is expected to report a 40% decline.The weak estimates suggest that cement companies may still be dealing with pricing pressure, cost headwinds and weak sequential momentum. This is despite the sector’s aggregate revenue being projected to grow 11% YoY.
Healthcare has some big disappointments
Healthcare also has prominent names in the profit-fall list. Dr Reddy’s Laboratories is expected to report a 60% YoY fall in net profit, one of the steepest declines among large companies in the data. Cipla’s profit is projected to fall 35%, while Lupin may see a 18% decline.
Alkem Laboratories and Zydus Lifesciences are also expected to report double-digit profit declines of 13% and 13%, respectively. The pressure in these names contrasts with the broader healthcare sector, where aggregate profit is still expected to grow 8%.
Consumer names face selective pressure
The consumer sector is not uniformly weak, but some large names are expected to report profit declines. ITC is projected to see a 15% fall in net profit, with EBITDA also expected to decline 16% YoY. Jyothy Labs is expected to report a much sharper 48% profit decline, while Bikaji Foods may see profit fall 18%.
This comes at a time when investors are watching rural demand, input costs and the impact of uneven monsoon conditions on consumption. While some FMCG names may benefit from festive demand, the Q2 estimates show that earnings resilience will not be uniform.
Other pockets of weakness
In capital goods, KEC International, Siemens and Triveni Turbine are expected to report double-digit profit falls. In consumer durables, Blue Star’s profit is projected to fall 45%. In metals, NMDC and Vedanta Aluminium are expected to report declines of 11% and 12%, respectively.
Oil and gas also has weak spots, with Indraprastha Gas and IOC expected to report double-digit profit falls. In retail, Bata India and Go Fashion are seen reporting profit declines of 30% and 47%, respectively. Yatra Online, Suzlon Energy, UPL, Coromandel International and Ventive Hospitality are also among the names expected to see profit pressure.
Overall earnings likely to be strong
Motilal expects strong broad-based earnings growth, led by banks, NBFCs, metals, oil and gas, and telecom. The broader market is likely to see a register PAT growth of 23% in the smallcap space and 11% for midcaps.
On the market backdrop, Motilal said the relatively effortless climb enjoyed by Indian equities until 2024 has given way to a heavier lift, as a growing weight of sentiment-driven and fundamental pressures has tested market resilience over the past two years.
“As the second quarter earnings season begins, we believe five key factors will shape investor sentiment and determine the market’s next direction: Global interest rates and capital flows, energy prices, sustainability of the AI-led trade, FII flow dynamics and primary market supply,” the broker said.
Disclosure: This article has been written by Podishetti Akash, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Podishetti Akash and his ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclosures here.
