US home price growth inches up
A new report from Clever Real Estate found that home prices in all 50 of the largest US metro areas exceeded inflation between 2011 and 2026, with Miami leading the way at nearly 344% growth. https://t.co/NGEm4grL2E
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) September 30, 2026
Rates will drive 2027, not affordability alone
Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality in Irvine, California, said rate expectations are the single biggest variable heading into next year.
“Looking ahead to 2027, mortgage rates will be the primary driver of home price trends and sales activity,” she said.
“Many buyers halt their searches when rates exceed 7%, but as expectations shift from lower rates in 2027 to ‘higher for longer,’ some may opt to buy rather than keep waiting. Elevated rates and ongoing affordability challenges will favor markets with lower entry prices and strong local job growth over former high-growth pandemic hotspots.”
Cotality projects annual appreciation recovering to 1.6% by August, a step up from the 1.3% projected to close out 2026, and broadly in line with analyst forecasts on the 2026 US housing market correction and buyer outlook.
Markets at the highest risk of price declines over the next 12 months, according to Cotality’s Market Risk Indicators, include Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY; Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA; Providence-Warwick, RI-MA; St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Largo, FL; and Worcester, MA.
