Housing Notes: Q3 Manhattan Sale Prices Hit Another Record

Takeaways – Perplexity.AI, edited by JJM

Co-ops & Condos

Manhattan median sales price remained at a record high, while sales rose for the seventh time in eight quarters.

• Following the previous quarter, co-ops and condos again reached a record $1.25M median sales price
• Average square footage of a Manhattan apartment sale was the largest in six years
• Listing inventory fell year over year for the fourth time, wth the largest declines seen in the luxury and new development markets
• The market share of sales above the $1 million threshold remained with the highest share on record
• The most robust annual sales growth occurred from $2M to $5M
• 2- and 3-bedroom apartments are where most of the annual price growth is occurring

Townhouses

Listing inventory fell sharply, restraining sales.

• The average sales size fell to the lowest level in more than a year, pulling all the price metrics lower
• Months of supply, also known as the market pace, was its fastest in more than four years

Manhattan Median Price Sets New Record (Again)

The median sales price has remained at a record high of $1,250,000 for the past two quarters, rising 5.9% year over year. Average and median sales prices have generally been flat over the past decade, though they have risen modestly over the past few years.

The monthly payment continues to rise, but after adjusting for inflation, it is actually lower than in 2008 during the housing bubble.

Listing inventory, after accounting for the supply Compass-Anywhere hides from the public and the portals, remains below the 25-year average, which is one reason Manhattan housing prices have risen annually over the past couple of years.

It’s always good to remind ourselves that Manhattan housing prices do not correlate with the stock market (DJIA). Until the financial crisis in 2008, I thought I was on to something using Manhattan sales, since it is more reasonable to compare them to compensation and employment. Still, they soon went rogue, and there is no correlation.

Manhattan Townhouse Market Shifts to Smaller Sales

The average square footage of a Manhattan townhouse was 4,552, down 7.9% year over year. As a result, all three price trend metrics were pulled down, as shown in the matrix table above. One- to three-family townhouses tend to represent about 2% of all sales when combined with co-op and condo sales. Little to no new townhouses are being built, largely because buyers demand authentic turn-of-the-century structures even if the homes have been gutted to the party walls. For more than the past few decades, sales have largely been within a tight range, and prices have steadily trended higher over time. Both of these results are consistent with a fixed housing stock.

Final Thoughts

Manhattan’s median sales price hit a record $1,250,000 for the second straight quarter, up 5.9% from last year. Inflation-adjusted, monthly payments are still lower than in 2008, but limited inventory is keeping prices climbing, and long ago, they stopped tracking the stock market. Townhouses (1-3 family), about 2% of residential sales, got smaller on average (down 7.9% to 4,552 sq ft), which pulled their price metrics down, while a fixed supply keeps long-term prices trending up.

The Actual Final Thought – Honestly, I’ve had a few.