Revealed: The Canadian mortgage market’s latest risk trends
“Instead of the great renewal, I think forward-looking, we need to be looking at the constant renewal,” she said. “With those two years, those three years, those four years, those ARMs [adjustable-rate mortgages] that are coming up for renewal… as brokers, you’re going to be renewing on a very regular basis now.”
What’s more, property value contraction may be welcomed by buyers – but it’s also added another layer of complexity. Equifax has recorded a 3% decrease in property values nationally, meaning more existing homeowners are facing negative equity, higher loan-to-value ratios, and refinancing constraints at renewal time.
Delinquencies, fraud trends remain on the radar
Mortgage delinquency among outstanding balances, meanwhile, is running at 0.3%. That’s about 30% higher than the same period last year, mainly concentrated in Ontario. Non-mortgage delinquencies among homeowners are 12.5% above the same time in 2025, and insolvency rates – i.e., bankruptcy and consumer proposals – are now at their highest level since 2009.
On fraud, Zwart said the picture is equally stark. An Equifax analysis said at least $216 million in Ontario mortgage balances are currently sitting in severe delinquency and flagging on fraud tools, exposure that wasn’t identified at origination.
Mortgage fraud is most commonly perpetrated by those in the 26-to-45 age bracket, according to Zwart, and is concentrated in British Columbia and – more recently – Quebec. Falsified financials and documents are the key driver in the mortgage space.
