Home prices outran inflation everywhere for 15 years. Now what?
The 40-year view is starker still. The median US home sold for $78,200 in 1984 and sits at $423,100 today, a 441% gain against inflation’s 210% over the same span.
Had home prices tracked inflation since 1984, the median home would cost $242,309. That’s $180,791 less than what buyers actually pay, per the report.
For mortgage brokers working with entry-level clients, that figure is the affordability ceiling that has defined deal flow for years.
The home price–inflation gap
In dollar terms, the largest gaps between actual prices and inflation-adjusted values are concentrated in California. A San Jose home costs $732,712 more than it would if prices had matched inflation since 2011, followed by San Diego ($432,043), Los Angeles ($429,794), and San Francisco ($416,170).
Home prices at least tripled in 13 of the 50 largest metros since 2011, with Miami and Phoenix each posting more than fourfold gains.
