A $10,000 Investment in SpaceX Will Be Worth This Much by 2030
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.44%) investors have been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride since its initial public offering in June. The first available price for investors on its first day of trading was $150, and shortly after its debut, it climbed to over $225 per share. But by a bit over a month after that, it had fallen to a low of just under $110 per share. That’s a pretty wild swing in just a few months, but the stock has settled back down into a range that hovers around $150 per share, which means the market probably priced the IPO about right.
However, most investors didn’t buy SpaceX’s stock for what it would do in the first few months as a public company. They bought it for what it will do over the next few years. So, where might SpaceX be by 2030?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX has a handful of irons in the fire
SpaceX may be known as the most notable space economy investment, but its launch business is a relatively small part of its operation. In fact, it isn’t even half as big as its AI division.
| Division | Second-Quarter 2026 Revenue |
|---|---|
| Connectivity | $4.29 billion |
| AI | $2.56 billion |
| Space | $962 million |
Data source: SpaceX.
While there’s an argument to be made for classifying its connectivity division as a “space” economy investment, too, I think it’s best to keep SpaceX categorized as an on-Earth investment. The connectivity unit is mostly SpaceX’s Starlink service, which provides satellite broadband to its subscribers. This has connected many customers to the internet who lacked access to other options such as cable, fiber, or terrestrial wireless, and is likely to be a major growth source for the company for years to come.
SpaceX’s fastest-growing division is AI, which should come as no surprise given the current state of the AI race. SpaceX owns xAI, which developed the Grok AI model. This has become a popular model to interface with, and with its revenue rising 213% during the quarter, it’s pretty clear it’s on the right track.
SpaceX will be larger in the future
Projecting where SpaceX will be nearly five years from now is no simple matter because the various businesses it operates are growing rapidly. xAI’s revenue could continue to grow at triple-digit rates for some time, and connectivity could keep delivering growth of 20% or more for many years.
The space division is tough to get a grip on, as the world seems to be focused more on AI proliferation than space exploration at this moment. When a company that’s supposed to be a space-first business is putting its focus on AI instead (SpaceX spent nearly $16 billion on capital expenditures on its AI division during the second quarter), it’s a pretty clear sign of how important it views that business to be.
Furthermore, SpaceX isn’t profitable, so it’s difficult to determine how high its profit margins might eventually be. During its IPO roadshow, management told investors they were targeting a 45% net income margin in “the future.” With the space side of its business not likely to be profitable by 2030, I’m going to assume SpaceX will fall short of its goal.
Space Exploration Technologies
Today’s Change
(0.44%) $0.65
Current Price
$148.68
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$146.00 – $149.67
52wk Range
$104.83 – $225.64
Volume
54.6M
Avg Vol
93.3M
As a revenue baseline, I’ll use what Wall Street analysts estimate SpaceX’s revenue will be by the end of this year: $44.8 billion. If SpaceX can grow its revenue at a 40% compound annual growth rate over the next four years and reach a 30% profit margin in 2030, that would give it $172 billion in revenue and $51.6 billion in profits that year. If the market prices the stock at an earnings multiple of 30 — not too excessive for a growth stock — that would give it a market cap of $1.5 trillion.
For reference, SpaceX’s market cap is just shy of $2 trillion today. That should tell you how much hoped-for growth and optimism about profitability are baked into SpaceX’s stock already, as growing at a 40% rate for multiple years is a very generous projection. As a result, a $10,000 investment would lose money, falling to around $7,500.
For me, SpaceX is just too expensive to consider. I think investors should look elsewhere.
