Economists see inflation running hotter in Canada, survey shows
By Erik Hertzberg and Dana Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Economists are boosting their forecasts for Canada inflation, now saying price pressures won’t return to the central bank’s 2% target until the third quarter of next year.
Analysts see the consumer price index averaging 3% over the next six months, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. That’s 0.6 percentage points higher than in last month’s survey.
The higher-for-longer outlook coincides with a resurgence in oil prices from the conflict in the Middle East. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that persistently elevated gasoline prices are likely to keep headline inflation above target and increase the risk that price pressures spread more broadly.
Still, economists don’t expect the bank to raise interest rates from the current 2.25% until its June meeting next year, the survey shows. That’s at odds with market pricing — traders in overnight swaps put the odds of a hike at the bank’s October meeting at about a coin flip.
The outlook for growth has also weakened. Economists see annualized growth of 1.5% in both the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year, down from 1.7% for each period in last month’s survey. They put the probability of a recession at 30%.
Statistics Canada next reports inflation Oct. 19.
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Last modified: September 25, 2026
