Trade turmoil, bond market chaos, rising rates: Will the housing market take a hit?
“I’m expecting either no change or a max of 25 basis points rate increase,” he said about the outlook for the remainder of 2026. “In 2027, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a few cuts as expectations can change quickly.”
‘Monitor the risks, but also plan for opportunity’
The tariff dispute with the US has dominated the housing market discourse over the past 18 months, and with no indication that negotiators will strike a deal soon to ease the current tensions, its shadow will likely continue to loom over the housing sector for now.
For Donaldson, that trade war remains the single biggest factor that will determine when Canada’s housing market finally posts a strong rebound. “A trade deal with the US would be a huge vote of confidence to our economy,” he said.
But in the meantime, few are expecting a market meltdown – and Donaldson is urging prospective buyers to focus on the wider outlook, rather than zeroing in on the current uncertainty.
“Homebuyers and investors shouldn’t just look at the current macro picture today and make their decisions,” he said. “Look out six to 12 months and see where things are headed. Monitor the risks, but also plan for opportunity that could present itself.”
