CUSMA collapse would cost Canada $402bn over a decade, Deloitte warns
“The bottom line is a severe but not cataclysmic impact on Canada’s overall economy, although perhaps cataclysmic for some sectors,” wrote Stewart and his co-authors.
The upside scenario models Canada maintaining CUSMA while aggressively pursuing new free trade agreements globally.
Under that path, real GDP grows 0.6% by 2036, adding $141 billion in cumulative output and approximately 53,000 jobs annually.
Agriculture is the primary beneficiary, with food manufacturing projected to grow $16 billion per year by 2036 on expanded access to China and India.
What a trade breakdown means for borrowers
For Canadian mortgage professionals, the macro projections carry a direct market translation. Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s manufacturing heartland, face the steepest sectoral losses under a CUSMA collapse.
