AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
1 Hour, 39 Min ago
To be clear, most of today’s rally is attributable to the news on the Treasury buyback program discussed in the morning commentary. Today’s consumer rate commentary also has a useful set of bullet points to recap the changes. Ultimately, the buyback news simply meant that the shortest-term debt suffered at the expense of longer-term debt. To put this in perspective, consider that 30yr yields are almost 10bps lower than they were at the open whereas 2yr yields are actually a few bps higher. If today’s news was truly akin to QE or any sort of accommodation goal, we would not be seeing such trade-offs in the yield curve. Last but not least, oil prices made a round trip today from the lows of the day this morning at 8:35am to highs at 1pm and back down near the lows by the close. That ebb and flow coincided with intraday bond market volatility almost perfectly.
09:29 AM
sharp gains after TSY buyback announcement. 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.643 and MBS up a quarter point.
11:59 AM
Off the best levels. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.4bps at 4.652
01:18 PM
MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.677
03:55 PM
Back at stronger levels. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.644
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