Trouble ahead for the economy? CFIB highlights big possible tariff impact
“Few small firms can absorb a 50% tariff, and few can pass that cost on to customers while staying competitive,” Kelly said.
“All eyes are on our negotiations with Washington as the stakes are very high for Canadian SMEs.”
A wait-and-see mode with real consequences
Competitiveness concerns are compounding the anxiety. Some 78% of surveyed exporters believe a 50% tariff would render their products uncompetitive in the US market, and 75% say the duty would push them to actively reduce reliance on American buyers.
Despite that, 78% say they remain in a wait-and-see mode as trade policy uncertainty persists, a holding pattern with direct implications for business investment, hiring, and household income stability.
Meanwhile, underlying export patterns have already begun to shift: between 2024 and 2025, the number of Canadian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) exporting goods to the US declined by 1.4%, according to Statistics Canada, while the number exporting to non-US markets rose by 6.6%, suggesting diversification is already underway — albeit slowly.
