What happens to Canada if CUSMA talks fall apart?
Over the longer term, the Canadian economy would contract by an estimated $271 billion CAD by 2035, with the US economy losing $1.04 trillion USD.
“The US-Canada relationship is one of the most integrated economic partnerships in the world, supporting millions of jobs, driving innovation, and strengthening our collective competitiveness,” said Beth Burke, chief executive officer of the Canadian American Business Council in Washington, D.C.
“This report highlights the extent of integration and how we are stronger together.”
A successful renegotiation reverses that trajectory. The report projects a net gain of 98,000 Canadian jobs and 137,000 American jobs in 2027 in that scenario, along with slower inflation and higher real disposable income on both sides of the border.
The Bank of Canada says 96% of surveyed financial market participants view rising trade tensions as the top downside risk to Canada’s economy, while inflation and interest rate expectations remain in focus.https://t.co/UF9M72ZdJ8
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) July 28, 2026
What the numbers mean for housing and lending
For brokers, the report’s manufacturing findings carry particular weight. Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s largest manufacturing provinces, face the heaviest losses under a breakdown. Auto, wood product, and metal product manufacturing were cited as the most exposed sectors.
