Market split: The suburbs still running hot amid widespread cooling

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Nationally, the analysis showed positive market classifications dropped sharply across the quarter, falling from 52.1 per cent in March to 43.3 per cent in June.

Over the same period, declining markets jumped from 132 to 482, showing a 265 per cent surge in just one quarter, according to the PPI.

Hotspotting managing director, Tim Graham, said that recent market disruptions were reshaping the national landscape more unevenly than the headline data suggested.

“Three RBA rate rises, geopolitical trade uncertainty, cost-of-living pressures and federal budget changes have all hit at once, but the impact isn’t uniform,” he said.

“Some markets are cooling sharply, while others are still running incredibly hot with our new Thermometer methodology making those differences visible in real time.”

Adelaide suburbs take top spots

Onkaparinga, in Adelaide’s south, took the top spot with a score of 77/100, followed by the inner-southern suburb of Mitcham, scoring 76.

Hotspotting founder, Terry Ryder, said Greater Adelaide’s results showed the city had the tightest supply conditions of any capital city market.

“When stock clears quickly, the live-market pressure becomes extreme. Inventory thins, days on market collapse, properties sell above asking, and vacancy disappears,” Ryder said.

In third place, Palmerston, southeast of Darwin, scored 74, despite only 18 per cent of its markets having positive classifications.

Graham said the region had been experiencing subdued volume, but demand was outpacing genuinely scarce stock.

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Marion, Adelaide, was in fifth place at 73, followed by Bayswater, Perth, with a score of 72.

Despite one Greater Perth suburb featuring on the list, the report said the June quarter marked a negative turn for the capital, which had been the standout performer in the post-COVID-19 boom.

“Just 23.4 per cent of its 278 scorable markets are now classified as positive, which was the lowest reading of any jurisdiction nationally,” it said.

Next were Adelaide’s suburbs of Tea Tree Gully, with a score of 72, and Campbelltown, achieving a score of 71.

These were followed by Tasmania’s Glenorchy and Kingborough, and the Port Adelaide region of Enfield, all scoring 70.

Diverging market

According to the data, the surge in declining markets was heavily concentrated in Greater Perth, Greater Brisbane, Rest of Queensland, and Rest of Western Australia.

Ryder said the results showed a cycle rotation rather than a market collapse, with the market cooling in real time.

“But it’s not a crisis. Instead, it’s a normal cycle turn happening faster than usual because disruption is hitting buyer sentiment,” he said.

Despite recent headlines about price declines in the major capitals, Melbourne still sat at 49.1 per cent positive markets and Sydney at 47.3 per cent, both well above the national average.

According to Graham, the two cities remained supported by population growth, employment depth, and infrastructure investment, showing that price headlines often missed the underlying fundamentals.

Meanwhile, he said that regional South Australia emerged as the strongest mainland regional performer, recording 49.1 per cent positive rankings across 57 markets.

“It’s consistent, it’s stable, and it’s outperforming every other mainland regional jurisdiction,” Graham said.

Graham also noted that the broader national picture showed the sharpest divergences occurring within states, rather than between them.

“The Rest of Western Australia sits 25.3 points above Greater Perth; Melbourne outperforms the Rest of Victoria by 12.4 points; and Regional South Australia sits 10 points above Greater Adelaide,” he said.

According to Ryder, anyone reading the national headline without looking at the jurisdiction breakdown would misread the market, potentially missing risks and opportunities.

“This is not one market moving in one direction – it’s many markets moving at very different speeds at the same time.”