Admiral Group looks admirable – how to play its shares
Insurer Admiral Group (LSE: ADM) is among several firms which earlier this year saw their share price slump because of fears that AI-powered rivals could capture most (or all) of their business. However, since then many of these stocks have bounced back, with investors deciding that such fears are overhyped.
Admiral Group’s shares fell by 14% in January after US firm Lemonade, which uses AI to process claims, launched a cheap policy for self-driving cars. While the policy was aimed at US consumers, it fuelled fears about AI being used to undercut traditional insurers.
Investors also fretted that the better driving record of autonomous vehicles compared with those steered by people could reduce the need for car insurance. Some analysts, such as AJ Bell’s Dan Coatsworth, wonder whether car insurance will eventually be purchased by car manufacturers rather than by individual drivers.
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How Admiral Group is using AI to cut costs
Yet even if such fears come true in the very long run, it’s worth noting that full self-driving for individual cars (as opposed to a relatively small number of taxis currently on the streets) is at least a decade away from mass adoption. In any case, Admiral Group has itself been using AI and digitisation to cut costs and give it an advantage over its main rivals.
Earlier this year, Admiral Group also bought Flock, a technology firm it had been working with. The purchase gives it full access to, and ownership of, Flock’s technology, which uses AI and telemetry (the process of collecting data from remote sources and passing it to a receiving system) to judge how well people are driving.
Meanwhile, Admiral Group has been taking steps to diversify its business by branching out into household, travel and pet insurance. While these areas currently make up only a small proportion of overall profit, they are growing at an extremely rapid rate, which should improve the group’s medium-term prospects.
Meanwhile, sales almost tripled between 2021 and 2025, and are forecast to keep growing over the next few years. While profits have been more volatile, they have increased since 2021. Admiral boasts strong margins, with a double-digit return on capital employed. This has allowed the group to raise dividends to record levels. The stock’s valuation also looks attractive at 15 times expected 2027 earnings and a dividend yield of just under 5%.
Admiral Group’s share price has plenty of momentum behind it, having beaten the overall UK market over the last one, three and six months. It is trading well above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, and has also been one of the best performers in the FTSE 100 over the last six months. I suggest that you go long at the current price of 3,772p at £1 per 1p. I would put the stop-loss at 2,800p, which would give you a total downside of £972.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek’s magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
