Is a Fed hike coming? July’s jobs data won’t settle it
By firm size, small businesses with fewer than 50 employees led with 23,000 new jobs.
Pay data sent a more layered signal. Annual earnings for job-stayers held at 4.4%, while those who changed employers saw pay climb to 7%, the sharpest gain since August 2025.
“Job-changers are highly sensitive to real-time economic conditions, and their rapid pay growth implies supply constraints in parts of the labor market,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
“Typical hiring patterns, meanwhile, are changing as employers react to shifting macroeconomic conditions.”
That acceleration in pockets of wage growth could complicate the Fed’s calculus on inflation. The central bank has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% throughout 2026, prioritizing a return to its 2% inflation target.
