New Zealand’s ruling coalition holds razor-thin majority in poll,

Poll Shows New Zealand Coalition’s Narrow Majority, Opportunity Party Gains

New Zealand Political Landscape and Poll Results

By Renju Jose

Coalition’s Current Standing

SYDNEY, Aug 7 (Reuters) – New Zealand’s ruling centre-right coalition may retain a razor-thin parliamentary majority if an election were held now, a poll showed on Friday, but a surge for the new centrist Opportunity Party could reshape coalition talks ahead of the November vote.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll said the governing bloc of the centre-right National Party, New Zealand First and ACT could win 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament, giving it a majority of one seat.

Opposition and Opportunity Party Surge

The opposition Labour party was projected to lose five seats, with much of that support appearing to shift to the Opportunity Party, which could win eight seats. Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and Opportunity could win a combined 59 seats.

Opportunity Party’s Rise

Support for the Opportunity Party rose to 6.1%, the first time it has exceeded the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. If it clears the threshold at the election, it would become the first new party to enter parliament in more than two decades.   

The poll surveyed 1,000 voters by phone and online between August 1 and 4.

Prime Minister’s Stance and Coalition Dynamics

Luxon’s Position on Opportunity Party

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, the leader of the National party, has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, saying its policies, particularly on tax, are incompatible with National’s approach.

That could narrow his party’s options despite its stated willingness to work across political divides.

Luxon’s Popularity

Luxon’s preferred prime minister rating rose by more than four percentage points in the poll, leaving him the country’s most popular choice for leader.

Electoral System Debate

Referendum Proposal

However, the poll was conducted before Luxon said on Thursday he was open to a referendum on New Zealand’s German-style Mixed Member Proportional electoral system, known as MMP.   

Coalition Tensions Over MMP

The comments exposed another point of tension within the coalition and drew criticism from New Zealand First and ACT, which have also clashed with National on economic and minority issues. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters described the proposal as “inexplicable”, while ACT said it would oppose such a move.

Background on MMP

New Zealand adopted MMP in 1996 after a review found smaller parties were disadvantaged under the previous first-past-the-post system. Voters backed retaining MMP in a 2011 referendum, with 58% supporting the electoral system.

(Reporting by Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Stephen Coates)