Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain

Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain


2 Hours, 29 Min ago

Monday was “nice.” Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today’s yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd.  Or on a more timely note, the rally didn’t fully erase Friday’s weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we’ll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent is a reminder that things can change quickly  with respect to geopolitics. Last but not least, while econ data had no lasting impact today, Friday’s jobs report is on another level.

09:50 AM

Stronger overnight on war-related de-escalation and lower fuel prices. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.689

12:03 PM

MBS still up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.686

02:37 PM

Super flat. MBS still up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.687


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